The Global Economy and Tourism
Historically, emerging markets have been viewed as secondary playgrounds for financially developed markets; the volatility and risk involved caused restraint but also yielded higher returns. The instability that plagued many countries now considered to have emerging economies has subsided; political regimes have established themselves more confidently, fiscal policy has been conducted more responsibly, and most importantly these countries have increasingly learned to rely on themselves to stimulate their own economies. Whilst the global economy is causing all to suffer, albeit to different degrees, emerging markets have remained rather buoyant in contrast to mature markets.
As a significant contributor to any economy, tourism is playing its role; albeit that the global scale of the tourism industry alone implies a decline in growth when financial turmoil strikes. Following a period of robust growth, the first half of 2008 represented the climax of the boom in world tourism and, as expected, the negative trend in international tourist arrivals that emerged during the second half of 2008 has intensified in 2009.
Mature markets have been affected the worst, experiencing negative growth in international tourist arrivals, yet emerging markets, such as Africa, Central and South America, are showing stable demand growth according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
In fact, according to the UNWTO, worldwide international tourist arrivals have declined by some eight percent in the first four months of this year when compared to the same period in 2008 with the Middle East (-18%) and Europe (-10%) being the worst affected regions, followed by Asia and the Pacific (-6%), and the Americas (-5%). Africa was the only region to record positive growth (+3%) in the first four months of 2009; primarily as a consequence of encouraging performance recorded in Morocco, Tunisia, and Kenya.
In the June 2009 edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, the UNWTO has revised its forecast for the full year 2009. Despite prospects being adjusted downward, with international tourism expected to decline by between -6% and -4%, the UNWTO prospects anticipate Africa will achieve positive growth in international tourist arrivals in 2009 (between +1% and +5%).
According to a recently published report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which was commissioned by global distribution system (GDS) provider Amadeus, business travellers are expected to make fewer, shorter, and cheaper business trips in 2009 and continue to trade down, switching from luxury extras in favour of basic efficiency and good service.
With reference to the leisure market segment, the report indicates that long-haul trips have fallen more than short-haul trips. However, the report further indicates that there are signs that this could change as potential travellers realise that despite higher airfares, long-haul destinations are often more attractive in terms of overall prices.
Although some analysts predict that the outlook for the remainder of the year has improved, industry analysts concur that the possibility of a moderate recovery will depend on the evolving global economic conditions and the restoration of consumer and business confidence. |